Monthly Housing Market Update
Caleb's Perspective on the Market
At first glance, it may appear that the Victoria Real Estate Market had a surprisingly strong month in April. For example, the total number of residential sales in April jumped by 2.3% compared to the same month last year. Furthermore, the residential Months of Inventory now sits at 4.67%, signaling a balanced market. However, looking below the surface this may be nothing more than a dead cat bounce, as the context (and the overall stats) don't look so promising. So instead of my normal monthly update focused solely on the Victoria Real Estate Market, I want to use this month's newsletter to focus on the larger market trends in play, and how Victoria seems to be following along in the bigger countrywide picture.
As the chart above shows last month's bump in sales is barely visible; furthermore it is the 3rd lowest total for any April over the past 10 years. Outside of the small increase in sales, April finished with higher inventory (up by 7.3% Year-over-Year) and lower median prices (SFD down by 2.5%, and condos down by 0.4% Year-over-Year). So with higher inventory, lower prices and only a minor bump in sales compared to last year, the sales-to-new-list ratio sits at just 39%, which is buyer's market territory. However, as mentioned above, this follows a similar trend across Canada.
Residential Sales: 620Up by 2.3%
As the chart above shows, average prices are down across the Nation. Although not all markets are perfectly synchronized, the trend clearly shows that prices have remained lower over the past 4 years. A similar trend has certainly taken place in the Victoria Real Estate Market, as median prices are also down over the same span. In fact, the median price for a single family detached home in April of 2022 was $1,251,000; however as of the end of April it now sits at just $1,170,000.
Median Condo Price: $545,000Down by 0.4%
A weakening rental market could be one of the reasons for lower prices across Canada. The chart above reveals that average asking rents for all property types have fallen across Canada over the past year. In fact, according to Rentals.ca: "The average asking rent in Canada declined for the 18th consecutive month". This trend is also the reality in Victoria, as average asking rents for a 1 bed are down by 5.6% compared to the same time last year, and down by 4.3% for a 2 bed.
Median SFD House Price: $1,170,000Down by 2.5%
Another possible reason for lower average prices across Canada could be a sharp decline in immigration. For instance, the chart above shows Canada's population growth falling from over 3% a few years ago to almost no growth today. This drop in population growth is also a likely reason for falling rents across Canada.
Lastly, we need to examine bond rates as they directly impact the mortgage rates that are available to Canadian home buyers. The chart above shows that the 5-year Canada Bond has increased over the past 6 months, which have pushed Canadian mortgage rates up as a consequence. When bond rates rise, mortgages become more expensive often forcing buyers to lower their home price budget.
Although residential sales increased in April, the Victoria Real Estate Market remains sluggish overall. Inventory is up, prices are down, and sales are still well below the 10-year average. Furthermore, Victoria is following trends impacting markets nationwide. Average prices and rents are down in Canada, which is not all that surprising considering population growth has substantially slowed and mortgage rates have jumped higher. With no new people to absorb the new construction inventory, and budgets stretched due to higher mortgage rates, average rents and prices would naturally decline. Moving forward, will Victoria simply continue to follow national housing trends, or can we find a way to break free and chart our own path? This is something that I'll be watching closely and I'll be back next month with another update. Until then, have a great spring and enjoy the sunny weather.
Months of Inventory: 4.67= Balanced Market
Victoria Real Estate Market Report for April 2026
May 1, 2026 A total of 643 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this April, 0.2 per cent more than the 642 properties sold in April 2025 and 11.1 per cent more than in March 2026. Sales of condominiums increased by 5.9 per cent from April 2025 with 198 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased by 1.2 per cent from April 2025 with 331 sold.
“The overall market in Greater Victoria continues to remain in balance,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Fergus Kyne. “Inventory levels are staying strong, and new listings coming onto market in recent weeks will help serve our traditionally busy spring season. The collective track record from the past several months of balance and stability in our market is likely underpinning the confidence of buyers and sellers this season.”
There were 3,710 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of April 2026, an increase of 13.8 per cent compared to the previous month of March and an 8.3 per cent increase from the 3,425 active listings for sale at the end of April 2025.
“Current not-too-hot and not-too-cold conditions are setting the stage for a very reasonable spring market for consumers,” notes Chair Kyne. “It’s a Goldilocks real estate market leading into our busier months – and there is choice, inventory is diverse, there is a wide range of properties at different price points, and interest by buyers is also brisk. Of course, your experience can vary depending on where and what type of property you seek in our area, which consists of many different micro-markets. If you’re considering a move this spring season, it’s a great time to connect with your favourite local REALTOR® to weigh your options.”
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in April 2025 was $1,354,800. The benchmark value for the same home in April 2026 decreased by 1.2 per cent to $1,339,100, up from March’s value of $1,330,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in April 2025 was $562,900, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in April 2026 decreased by 0.8 per cent to $558,300, up from the March value of $553,800.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our Statistics
The use of sale price statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
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Courtesy of the Victoria Real Estate Board
Interpreting the Stats
I believe that one of the best indicators to gauge the current real estate market is the sales-to-active listings ratio. Instead of just focusing on the number of sales we have in a given month, the sales-to-active listings ratio expresses the number of sales as a percentage of the active listings that are currently available for sale. In other words, current levels of demand relative to current levels of supply. For example, if we had a sales-to-active ratio of 50% this would mean that in the entire Victoria Real Estate Market we would have just 2 months of inventory for sale. In other words, if this level of sales were to continue, it would take only 2 months to sell all of the remaining listings on the market.
What does this mean for prices? Well, generally, less than 4 months of inventory indicates a seller's market with prices increasing more the lower that this number goes. On the other hand, more than 6 months of inventory generally results in a buyer's market with prices dropping. The longer the trend remains, the stronger the correlation to price increases/decreases. Interest rates, new building starts, wages and the state of the economy all have an effect, but essentially it is the amount of demand relative to inventory available for sale that drives the market.
- Caleb Mickelson