Monthly Housing Market Update
Caleb's Perspective on the Market
Welcome to my first market update of 2026; what I can say is that things look very different so far this year. In fact, looking back just 1 year ago, we were coming off of a pretty strong start to the year, as sales rebounded and the market was heating up in January of 2025. However, the Victoria real estate market finds itself in a much slower state to start 2026, as sales declined, and inventory climbed in January and we now find ourselves in a buyer's market. Let's look at the stats below:
Sales
As you will see in the above chart, residential sales dropped substantially (20.1%) compared to this time last year, with a total of only 318 for the month. More specifically, Condo sales (109) came in 21.5% below the 10-year average for January, and SFD Home sales (153) came in 16% below the 10 year average for January. With these numbers in mind, there is no question that sales have been soft to start the year, both compared to last year, and compared to the 10-year average.
Residential Sales: 318Down by 20.1%
Inventory
Inventory continued to grow in January, which has been a consistent theme over the past 5 years. For example, if you look at the above chart, you will see that active residential inventory has risen each year since 2022. Furthermore, with 1,916 active residential listings at the end of January, we saw an 8% jump year-over-year, and the highest total for any January since 2015.
Median Condo Price: $546,000 Down by 0.6%
Prices
Even though inventory rose with declining sales, prices remained resilient in January. For example, the median price for a Single Family Detached home in January was $1,160,000, which is up by 2.9% compared to the same time last year. On the other hand, the median price for condos came in at $546,000, which is down compared to last January, but only by 0.6%. However, as you will see in the above chart, median prices haven't moved in any sustained direction over the past 5 years. The market has remained quite flat over this period when measured by median prices.
Median House Price: $1,160,000 Up by 2.9%
Overall, the Victoria real estate market is off to a slow start for 2026. For instance, there is currently 6 months of residential inventory for sale, which puts the market firmly in Buyer's Market territory. Furthermore, the sales-to-new-list ratio has fallen to just 31.2%, which only reinforces how slow it is in Victoria. To put it clearly, buyers have a lot of inventory to choose from right now and they aren't feeling rushed to make a purchase, hence the weak sales. The spring market will undoubtedly heat up and bring many new buyers to the market, but it will also bring plenty of new sellers as well. I'll be watching to see how it plays out and I will be back next month with another update. Until then, enjoy the crisp weather and slightly longer days in February!
Months of Inventory = 6 (Buyer's Market) Victoria Real Estate Market Report for January 2026
February 2, 2026 A total of 339 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this January, 19.7 per cent fewer than the 422 properties sold in January 2025 and 7.6 per cent fewer than in December 2025. Sales of condominiums decreased by 25.3 per cent from January 2025 with 109 units sold. Sales of single family homes decreased by 21.1 per cent from January 2025 with 153 sold.
"This year kicked off with sales in a similar pattern to what we observed in 2023 and '24," said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Fergus Kyne. "Those years signalled the return to more predictable, seasonal patterns after the intense pace of the pandemic-influenced market we saw earlier in the decade. Different this year is that there is much more inventory on the market. Healthy levels of inventory that meet demand are critical to smooth out any upward pressure on pricing. As we move through the year, it may well be inventory levels and a combination of external factors like interest rates, global trade tensions, and consumer confidence that ultimately determine the course for our market."
There were 2,624 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of January 2026, an increase of 3.1 per cent compared to the previous month of December and a 9.6 per cent increase from the 2,395 active listings for sale at the end of January 2025.
"With the current strong level of inventory and fewer sales, the overall market in January rested on the threshold between balanced and a buyer's market," notes Chair Kyne. "A single month does not promise a long-term trend, but this does mean that January offered a good amount of selection for buyers and more defined outcomes for sellers. Our market area is small but diverse, and consists of many micro-markets, all of which have their own specific market conditions. This means that some areas may be in balance, while others may trend to a buyer's market. To determine where a property is within the balance of markets, connect with your favourite Victoria REALTOR®."
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index* benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in January 2025 was $1,297,300. The benchmark value for the same home in January 2026 decreased by 2.5 per cent to $1,265,500, up from December's value of $1,255,000. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in January 2025 was $545,900, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in January 2026 decreased by 1.5 per cent to $537,800, down from the December value of $549,900.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our Statistics
The use of sale price statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
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Courtesy of the Victoria Real Estate Board
Interpreting the Stats
I believe that one of the best indicators to gauge the current real estate market is the sales-to-active listings ratio. Instead of just focusing on the number of sales we have in a given month, the sales-to-active listings ratio expresses the number of sales as a percentage of the active listings that are currently available for sale. In other words, current levels of demand relative to current levels of supply. For example, if we had a sales-to-active ratio of 50% this would mean that in the entire Victoria Real Estate Market we would have just 2 months of inventory for sale. In other words, if this level of sales were to continue, it would take only 2 months to sell all of the remaining listings on the market.
What does this mean for prices? Well, generally, less than 4 months of inventory indicates a seller's market with prices increasing more the lower that this number goes. On the other hand, more than 6 months of inventory generally results in a buyer's market with prices dropping. The longer the trend remains, the stronger the correlation to price increases/decreases. Interest rates, new building starts, wages and the state of the economy all have an effect, but essentially it is the amount of demand relative to inventory available for sale that drives the market.
- Caleb Mickelson