Monthly Housing Market Update
Caleb's Perspective on the Market
At first glance, not much has changed in the Victoria real estate market. Sales remain soft, prices have eased slightly, and buyers continue to enjoy plenty of choice. Overall, the market remains balanced. But when I look a little deeper into the numbers, I'm beginning to see a trend that could eventually shift the market's momentum. Let's take a closer look.
New Listings Are Beginning to Slow
Residential Sales: 640Down by 1.7%
One of the most interesting trends this month is that new listings appear to be plateauing. Victoria recorded 1,154 new residential listings in July, a 6.5% decrease compared to July of last year. More importantly, this marks the third consecutive month that new listings have declined on a year-over-year basis. This is significant because inventory can only continue growing if new listings outpace the number of homes being sold. If fewer homeowners continue listing their properties, overall inventory should eventually begin to shrink. We're not there yet—but the trend is worth watching.
Inventory Is Still Growing… Just Not as Quickly
Median Condo Price: $525,000Down by 2.8%
At the end of July, there were 2,982 active residential listings, an increase of 3.7% over July 2025. While inventory is still rising, the pace of that growth has slowed considerably.
For comparison:
- July 2024 had 15% more inventory than July 2023.
- July 2025 finished 9% higher than July 2024.
- July 2026 is only 3.7% higher than July 2025.
Each year, inventory is increasing by a smaller amount than the year before. That's a sign that the market may be moving toward tighter balance.
Sales Continue to Hold the Market Back
Median SFD House Price: $1,165,000Down by 0.9%
The missing ingredient continues to be buyer demand. Victoria recorded 640 residential sales in July, down 1.7% compared to the same month last year. That's not a dramatic decline, but it is enough to prevent the market from gaining meaningful momentum. If sales begin to strengthen while new listings continue to trend lower, we could see inventory start to fall much more quickly. In my opinion, that's the key relationship to watch over the coming months.
A Small but Meaningful Shift
There was one statistic that caught my attention this month. The sales-to-new-listings ratio increased to 55%, up from 50% in June. While that still reflects a balanced market, it does show that the market tightened slightly over the past month. It's only one month's data, so I wouldn't read too much into it just yet, but it's certainly moving in the right direction. If this trend continues, it could be an early indication that demand could be outrunning supply.
Still a Balanced Market
Another statistic that I watch closely is the months of residential inventory. For the past four months, this figure has remained remarkably consistent at approximately 4.6 months of inventory. This represents a textbook balanced market—one where neither buyers nor sellers have a significant advantage. The question now is whether that balance begins to shift now that the sales-to-new-list ratio has jumped. This is certainly something to pay attention to in the coming months.
Looking Ahead
While the overall market remains relatively slow, I think we're beginning to see the first signs that conditions could strengthen. New listings are slowing. Inventory is still growing, but at a much more modest pace than in recent years. The sales-to-new-listings ratio has improved, suggesting the market is becoming slightly tighter. In order for this to play out, however, we need one more piece of the puzzle: sales. If buyer activity picks up while new listings continue to decline, Victoria could gradually transition from today's balanced market toward one that increasingly favours sellers. If sales remain soft, however, we can likely expect more of the same through the fall.
As always, I'll be watching the numbers closely and keeping you updated as the story unfolds.
Months of Inventory: 4.65= Balanced Market
Victoria Real Estate Market Report for July 2026
August 4, 2026 A total of 673 properties were sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this July, 1 per cent fewer than the 680 properties sold in July 2025 and 6.4 per cent fewer than sold in June 2026. Sales of condominiums decreased by 7.1 per cent from July 2025, with 209 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased by 4.1 per cent from July 2025, with 331 sold.
“It was a solid month for sales,” said Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Fergus Kyne. “We ended the month above the five-year average for number of sales in a July. What’s different about this market is the availability of inventory, and how the generous number of homes for sale impact both the seller and buyer experience. Buyers are taking more time to make decisions because of all the options available. Some buyers may even feel overwhelmed as they navigate a market with so much choice. If you’re shopping for homes right now, your REALTOR® can help explore the properties that have the best current and future potential, identify where smart compromises may be made, and focus on what features matter the most.”
There were 3,847 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of July 2026, a decrease of 5.1 per cent compared to the previous month of June and a 3.9 per cent increase from the 3,703 active listings for sale at the end of July 2025.
“On the other hand, if you’re a seller wondering where your buyer is, your Realtor can help determine the best approach in your specific situation,” notes Chair Kyne. “Your Realtor will have up to date market data and local insights to help you navigate your next steps. Sometimes simple things, like ensuring all maintenance is up to date, and that your home is presented beautifully, can be the difference in competitive markets. Whether you’re buying or selling, your Realtor works for you and can provide you with updates, options, and suggestions to navigate current market conditions.”
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in July 2025 was $1,348,400. The benchmark value for the same home in July 2026 decreased by 2.8 per cent to $1,311,000, down from June’s value of $1,326,500. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in July 2025 was $561,200, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in July 2026 decreased by 2.2 per cent to $548,600, down from the June value of $549,200.
View our press release and summary here.
View our complete statistical package here.
Notes for Interpreting Our Statistics
The use of sale price statistics can be useful in establishing trends when applied over a period of time, i.e. six months or longer. The Victoria Real Estate Board cautions, however, that such information does not indicate the actual value of any particular property. Those requiring specific information on property values should contact a REALTOR®.
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Courtesy of the Victoria Real Estate Board
Interpreting the Stats
I believe that one of the best indicators to gauge the current real estate market is the sales-to-active listings ratio. Instead of just focusing on the number of sales we have in a given month, the sales-to-active listings ratio expresses the number of sales as a percentage of the active listings that are currently available for sale. In other words, current levels of demand relative to current levels of supply. For example, if we had a sales-to-active ratio of 50% this would mean that in the entire Victoria Real Estate Market we would have just 2 months of inventory for sale. In other words, if this level of sales were to continue, it would take only 2 months to sell all of the remaining listings on the market.
What does this mean for prices? Well, generally, less than 4 months of inventory indicates a seller's market with prices increasing more the lower that this number goes. On the other hand, more than 6 months of inventory generally results in a buyer's market with prices dropping. The longer the trend remains, the stronger the correlation to price increases/decreases. Interest rates, new building starts, wages and the state of the economy all have an effect, but essentially it is the amount of demand relative to inventory available for sale that drives the market.
- Caleb Mickelson